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How does the economy affect the way people vote?

Although we can’t predict elections, it’s interesting to study how the economy affects the way people vote. One economic factor has remained consistent for the past 110 years: If a recession starts within two years prior to election day, the standing president has not been reelected.

How much did the stock market gain during the presidential election?

Between 1933 and 2019, the stock market experienced gains in 70% of calendar years. But during year three of the presidential election cycle, the S&P 500 saw an annual increase 82% of the time, demonstrating a notable consistency. By comparison, the market gained 59% of the time during both years one and two of the presidency.

What is the presidential election cycle theory?

The presidential election cycle theory holds that stock market performance may follow a generally cyclical pattern linked to presidential terms. It suggests that in the first year of a term, markets perform the weakest, before recovering and then peaking in the final two years.

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